Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #875 of 1,000

P0405

Large bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 59,9% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 11 705

Total allocated

R 20 0002 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 8 295

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 763Deviation -R 6 532

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 8 295. Bankroll allocations used: 2.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 9 948

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 19 707 to R 34 817
Finished ahead: 262 / 1,000 (26,2%)
At least one ruin: 487 / 1,000 (48,7%)
Median rank: #956 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 18,51% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.448
Mean bets / session: 5.7
Loss multiplier: 1.0878×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 57,5% / 99,7% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

CrashR 10 49536 wagers · RTP 112,07%

BaccaratR 6 63720 wagers · RTP 114,96%

American RouletteR 5 5448 wagers · RTP 83,01%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 5 07031 wagers · RTP 14,81%

BlackjackR 4 99018 wagers · RTP 108,42%

Three-Reel SlotR 4 26028 wagers · RTP 63,31%

Virtual Sports BettingR 2 77513 wagers · RTP 56,67%

European RouletteR 2 3268 wagers · RTP 2,58%

Craps / DiceR 2 3097 wagers · RTP 133,04%

Lottery / JackpotR 1 64522 wagers · RTP 12,16%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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