Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #983 of 1,000

P0406

Large bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 4,3% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTTail resultNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 10 000

Total allocated

R 20 0002 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 10 000

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 685Deviation -R 9 315

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 10 000. Bankroll allocations used: 2.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 9 656

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 996 to R 30 958
Finished ahead: 247 / 1,000 (24,7%)
At least one ruin: 49 / 1,000 (4,9%)
Median rank: #924 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 9,65% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.453
Mean bets / session: 5.521
Loss multiplier: 1.1101×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 73,2% / 86,3% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

High-Volatility Video SlotR 5 68367 wagers · RTP 9,31%

CrashR 3 10540 wagers · RTP 64,26%

Craps / DiceR 1 97113 wagers · RTP 70,52%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 61421 wagers · RTP 57,96%

European RouletteR 1 26716 wagers · RTP 58,72%

BaccaratR 1 0216 wagers · RTP 39,15%

Virtual Sports BettingR 90515 wagers · RTP 88,48%

BlackjackR 7009 wagers · RTP 49,43%

American RouletteR 6868 wagers · RTP 59,48%

Lottery / JackpotR 59614 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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