Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #965 of 1,000

P0407

Large bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 15,7% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 17

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 9 983

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 072Deviation -R 8 910

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 9 983. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 7 293

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 10 000 to R 25 855
Finished ahead: 248 / 1,000 (24,8%)
At least one ruin: 64 / 1,000 (6,4%)
Median rank: #841 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 18,87% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.591
Mean bets / session: 4.744
Loss multiplier: 1.0136×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 82,1% / 101,2% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Craps / DiceR 5 41237 wagers · RTP 101,96%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 5 05332 wagers · RTP 49,81%

CrashR 4 52024 wagers · RTP 85,49%

Three-Reel SlotR 4 03926 wagers · RTP 19,29%

BaccaratR 2 83317 wagers · RTP 124,20%

American RouletteR 2 75415 wagers · RTP 22,77%

Virtual Sports BettingR 2 34213 wagers · RTP 51,70%

European RouletteR 1 88610 wagers · RTP 66,49%

Lottery / JackpotR 6239 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BlackjackR 2273 wagers · RTP 184,14%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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