Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #770 of 1,000

P0408

Large bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 55,5% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 4 323

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 5 677

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 367Deviation -R 4 310

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 5 677. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 7 258

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 989 to R 27 894
Finished ahead: 268 / 1,000 (26,8%)
At least one ruin: 10 / 1,000 (1,0%)
Median rank: #837 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 16,46% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.305
Mean bets / session: 3.171
Loss multiplier: 1.0669×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 77,3% / 114,2% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

CrashR 8 05419 wagers · RTP 104,92%

Virtual Sports BettingR 5 97414 wagers · RTP 140,69%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 5 25021 wagers · RTP 4,76%

American RouletteR 4 2039 wagers · RTP 22,22%

BlackjackR 2 5736 wagers · RTP 127,40%

European RouletteR 1 4013 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Craps / DiceR 1 4013 wagers · RTP 133,33%

Lottery / JackpotR 9009 wagers · RTP 22,22%

Three-Reel SlotR 7503 wagers · RTP 133,33%

BaccaratR 4671 wagers · RTP 195,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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