Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #510 of 1,000

P0409

Large bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 69,5% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 18 076

Total allocated

R 20 0002 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 1 924

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 2 184Deviation R 259

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 1 924. Bankroll allocations used: 2.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 9 776

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 16 102 to R 30 154
Finished ahead: 278 / 1,000 (27,8%)
At least one ruin: 344 / 1,000 (34,4%)
Median rank: #934 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 17,98% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.324
Mean bets / session: 5.909
Loss multiplier: 1.0281×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 81,3% / 122,3% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

CrashR 22 35877 wagers · RTP 76,02%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 9 40343 wagers · RTP 46,86%

American RouletteR 8 29824 wagers · RTP 253,10%

Craps / DiceR 6 02517 wagers · RTP 108,88%

European RouletteR 4 33214 wagers · RTP 42,29%

BlackjackR 3 98110 wagers · RTP 117,38%

BaccaratR 3 24111 wagers · RTP 96,79%

Virtual Sports BettingR 2 3018 wagers · RTP 49,18%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 0526 wagers · RTP 2,85%

Lottery / JackpotR 90110 wagers · RTP 22,20%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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