Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #981 of 1,000

P0410

Large bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 35,0% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 4

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 9 996

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 651Deviation -R 8 345

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 9 996. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 9 967

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 17 937 to R 32 284
Finished ahead: 232 / 1,000 (23,2%)
At least one ruin: 408 / 1,000 (40,8%)
Median rank: #960 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 16,54% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.602
Mean bets / session: 4.32
Loss multiplier: 1.017×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 55,0% / 127,3% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

CrashR 8 94745 wagers · RTP 79,21%

BlackjackR 5 5909 wagers · RTP 35,83%

Craps / DiceR 5 09216 wagers · RTP 151,22%

American RouletteR 4 01411 wagers · RTP 209,27%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 3 63327 wagers · RTP 11,29%

BaccaratR 3 1288 wagers · RTP 75,87%

Virtual Sports BettingR 2 98112 wagers · RTP 69,42%

European RouletteR 2 5997 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 2 56316 wagers · RTP 25,17%

Lottery / JackpotR 2 16332 wagers · RTP 1,20%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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