Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #833 of 1,000

P0411

Large bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 62,0% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 3 012

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 6 989

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 781Deviation -R 5 208

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 6 989. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 9 544

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 999 to R 33 993
Finished ahead: 287 / 1,000 (28,7%)
At least one ruin: 58 / 1,000 (5,8%)
Median rank: #919 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 15,49% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.15
Mean bets / session: 4.09
Loss multiplier: 1.0339×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 61,2% / 102,4% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

European RouletteR 13 54018 wagers · RTP 46,26%

CrashR 10 00020 wagers · RTP 165,00%

BaccaratR 6 79410 wagers · RTP 161,58%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 6 75027 wagers · RTP 33,33%

Craps / DiceR 4 2726 wagers · RTP 53,37%

American RouletteR 3 8135 wagers · RTP 61,61%

Virtual Sports BettingR 3 0006 wagers · RTP 124,70%

BlackjackR 2 9414 wagers · RTP 44,54%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 5006 wagers · RTP 50,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 1 00010 wagers · RTP 20,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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