Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #967 of 1,000

P0412

Large bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 13,4% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 13

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 9 987

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 065Deviation -R 8 922

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 9 987. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 9 744

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 996 to R 34 199
Finished ahead: 235 / 1,000 (23,5%)
At least one ruin: 42 / 1,000 (4,2%)
Median rank: #930 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 13,10% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.316
Mean bets / session: 3.673
Loss multiplier: 1.1167×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 56,7% / 106,6% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

CrashR 8 00825 wagers · RTP 83,14%

American RouletteR 5 87918 wagers · RTP 44,00%

BaccaratR 3 50810 wagers · RTP 47,37%

Virtual Sports BettingR 2 75215 wagers · RTP 72,78%

BlackjackR 2 32510 wagers · RTP 72,26%

European RouletteR 1 96710 wagers · RTP 5,95%

Craps / DiceR 1 7454 wagers · RTP 192,78%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 66419 wagers · RTP 0,36%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 29410 wagers · RTP 106,45%

Lottery / JackpotR 3014 wagers · RTP 0,66%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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