Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #872 of 1,000

P0413

Large bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 70,3% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 1 836

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 8 164

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 4 351Deviation -R 3 813

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 8 164. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 9 823

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 993 to R 26 766
Finished ahead: 199 / 1,000 (19,9%)
At least one ruin: 36 / 1,000 (3,6%)
Median rank: #936 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 9,28% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.756
Mean bets / session: 3.641
Loss multiplier: 1.1036×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 61,9% / 101,9% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

CrashR 15 48536 wagers · RTP 88,41%

BlackjackR 13 32028 wagers · RTP 98,87%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 8 38834 wagers · RTP 5,96%

American RouletteR 6 34313 wagers · RTP 25,40%

BaccaratR 6 13012 wagers · RTP 157,68%

Virtual Sports BettingR 5 50011 wagers · RTP 108,47%

European RouletteR 5 07710 wagers · RTP 194,23%

Three-Reel SlotR 3 92216 wagers · RTP 60,56%

Craps / DiceR 2 7236 wagers · RTP 98,60%

Lottery / JackpotR 8008 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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