Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #988 of 1,000

P0414

Large bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 7,5% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 8 358

Total allocated

R 20 0002 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 11 642

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 962Deviation -R 10 680

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 11 642. Bankroll allocations used: 2.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 9 800

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 13 334 to R 33 209
Finished ahead: 276 / 1,000 (27,6%)
At least one ruin: 199 / 1,000 (19,9%)
Median rank: #936 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 18,33% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.427
Mean bets / session: 3.852
Loss multiplier: 1.1012×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 65,8% / 126,4% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BaccaratR 8 69923 wagers · RTP 81,71%

CrashR 5 73929 wagers · RTP 88,84%

BlackjackR 4 99712 wagers · RTP 116,71%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 3 95037 wagers · RTP 11,32%

European RouletteR 3 4675 wagers · RTP 3,12%

Virtual Sports BettingR 2 21912 wagers · RTP 66,41%

American RouletteR 1 9028 wagers · RTP 47,53%

Craps / DiceR 9888 wagers · RTP 11,54%

Three-Reel SlotR 8387 wagers · RTP 34,13%

Lottery / JackpotR 2134 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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