Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #99 of 1,000

P0415

Large bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 80,2% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 12 935

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 2 935

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 314Deviation R 4 249

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 2 935. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 6 930

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 895 to R 25 745
Finished ahead: 270 / 1,000 (27,0%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #824 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 11,54% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.2
Mean bets / session: 3.203
Loss multiplier: 1.0001×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 59,9% / 91,6% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

CrashR 8 98218 wagers · RTP 103,76%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 5 25021 wagers · RTP 47,62%

American RouletteR 4 4679 wagers · RTP 300,00%

Craps / DiceR 4 0168 wagers · RTP 100,00%

BlackjackR 4 0008 wagers · RTP 87,05%

European RouletteR 3 5147 wagers · RTP 28,57%

Three-Reel SlotR 2 50010 wagers · RTP 70,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 2 5005 wagers · RTP 127,64%

Lottery / JackpotR 5005 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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