Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #994 of 1,000

P0416

Large bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 4,2% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTTail resultNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 4 818

Total allocated

R 20 0002 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 15 182

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 121Deviation -R 14 061

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 15 182. Bankroll allocations used: 2.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 9 823

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 14 684 to R 34 243
Finished ahead: 261 / 1,000 (26,1%)
At least one ruin: 293 / 1,000 (29,3%)
Median rank: #938 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 17,42% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.776
Mean bets / session: 3.524
Loss multiplier: 1.0153×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 80,3% / 112,5% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

CrashR 9 18445 wagers · RTP 64,61%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 8 25053 wagers · RTP 7,03%

BaccaratR 4 77813 wagers · RTP 82,55%

Craps / DiceR 4 26011 wagers · RTP 161,41%

BlackjackR 2 2767 wagers · RTP 50,31%

Virtual Sports BettingR 2 19714 wagers · RTP 6,67%

American RouletteR 2 0459 wagers · RTP 0,15%

European RouletteR 1 1763 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 1018 wagers · RTP 144,96%

Lottery / JackpotR 1695 wagers · RTP 17,75%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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