Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #20 of 1,000

P0417

Large bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 91,7% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 32 224

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 22 224

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 2 710Deviation R 24 934

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 22 224. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 9 124

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 982 to R 27 537
Finished ahead: 226 / 1,000 (22,6%)
At least one ruin: 10 / 1,000 (1,0%)
Median rank: #902 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 9,59% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.708
Mean bets / session: 3.803
Loss multiplier: 1.0586×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 66,7% / 85,4% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

CrashR 9 79631 wagers · RTP 112,90%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 9 25037 wagers · RTP 394,59%

Craps / DiceR 6 00419 wagers · RTP 105,26%

BlackjackR 4 10813 wagers · RTP 115,38%

BaccaratR 3 16010 wagers · RTP 120,00%

European RouletteR 2 5288 wagers · RTP 37,50%

Three-Reel SlotR 2 2509 wagers · RTP 33,33%

American RouletteR 2 2127 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 2 2127 wagers · RTP 33,16%

Lottery / JackpotR 1 30013 wagers · RTP 15,38%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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