Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #49 of 1,000

P0418

Large bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 84,4% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 20 054

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 10 054

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 3 324Deviation R 13 379

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 10 054. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 9 822

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 997 to R 32 439
Finished ahead: 224 / 1,000 (22,4%)
At least one ruin: 59 / 1,000 (5,9%)
Median rank: #938 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 9,08% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.793
Mean bets / session: 4.202
Loss multiplier: 1.0525×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 73,2% / 125,7% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

CrashR 16 53638 wagers · RTP 98,56%

Virtual Sports BettingR 15 35335 wagers · RTP 152,68%

American RouletteR 9 23515 wagers · RTP 101,33%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 7 85134 wagers · RTP 173,89%

BlackjackR 6 78512 wagers · RTP 110,02%

European RouletteR 6 41712 wagers · RTP 65,09%

Craps / DiceR 5 90411 wagers · RTP 91,87%

BaccaratR 4 0668 wagers · RTP 90,01%

Lottery / JackpotR 1 10011 wagers · RTP 18,18%

Three-Reel SlotR 4962 wagers · RTP 24,80%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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