Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #993 of 1,000

P0419

Large bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 2,6% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTTail resultNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 4 931

Total allocated

R 20 0002 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 15 069

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 357Deviation -R 13 712

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 15 069. Bankroll allocations used: 2.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 9 552

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 13 693 to R 30 032
Finished ahead: 263 / 1,000 (26,3%)
At least one ruin: 291 / 1,000 (29,1%)
Median rank: #921 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 17,91% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.387
Mean bets / session: 5.222
Loss multiplier: 1.0667×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 78,1% / 70,1% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

CrashR 9 44341 wagers · RTP 48,40%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 5 73234 wagers · RTP 34,23%

BaccaratR 5 46017 wagers · RTP 76,23%

American RouletteR 4 07515 wagers · RTP 66,13%

Virtual Sports BettingR 3 66711 wagers · RTP 46,19%

BlackjackR 2 71210 wagers · RTP 86,14%

Three-Reel SlotR 2 25211 wagers · RTP 83,26%

Craps / DiceR 1 9297 wagers · RTP 80,15%

European RouletteR 1 1566 wagers · RTP 99,91%

Lottery / JackpotR 6379 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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