Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #962 of 1,000

P0421

Large bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 52,0% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 10 030

Total allocated

R 20 0002 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 9 970

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 2 266Deviation -R 7 705

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 9 970. Bankroll allocations used: 2.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 9 982

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 19 886 to R 36 165
Finished ahead: 265 / 1,000 (26,5%)
At least one ruin: 523 / 1,000 (52,3%)
Median rank: #965 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 19,37% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.524
Mean bets / session: 4.467
Loss multiplier: 1.0865×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 60,8% / 93,5% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

European RouletteR 21 88531 wagers · RTP 75,35%

CrashR 9 28927 wagers · RTP 27,29%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 7 18138 wagers · RTP 10,44%

Craps / DiceR 7 13612 wagers · RTP 173,85%

American RouletteR 5 92012 wagers · RTP 47,13%

Virtual Sports BettingR 5 59917 wagers · RTP 108,50%

BlackjackR 5 36910 wagers · RTP 134,17%

BaccaratR 3 8086 wagers · RTP 71,17%

Three-Reel SlotR 2 50212 wagers · RTP 319,74%

Lottery / JackpotR 4408 wagers · RTP 45,45%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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