Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #968 of 1,000

P0422

Large bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 33,9% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 12

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 9 988

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 057Deviation -R 8 931

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 9 988. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 9 893

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 17 568 to R 35 887
Finished ahead: 264 / 1,000 (26,4%)
At least one ruin: 323 / 1,000 (32,3%)
Median rank: #946 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 16,49% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.358
Mean bets / session: 4.918
Loss multiplier: 1.0691×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 82,6% / 98,9% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

CrashR 7 82433 wagers · RTP 167,59%

American RouletteR 6 46823 wagers · RTP 1,00%

Craps / DiceR 4 19814 wagers · RTP 0,24%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2 89836 wagers · RTP 27,40%

Three-Reel SlotR 2 01223 wagers · RTP 44,26%

European RouletteR 1 8286 wagers · RTP 0,33%

BlackjackR 1 4745 wagers · RTP 109,36%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 0439 wagers · RTP 122,00%

BaccaratR 87513 wagers · RTP 137,37%

Lottery / JackpotR 3367 wagers · RTP 1,19%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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