Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #622 of 1,000

P0423

Large bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 70,2% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 6 865

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 3 135

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 2 652Deviation -R 483

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 3 135. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 9 620

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 994 to R 31 821
Finished ahead: 255 / 1,000 (25,5%)
At least one ruin: 34 / 1,000 (3,4%)
Median rank: #924 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 13,61% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.179
Mean bets / session: 4.827
Loss multiplier: 1.0467×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 83,9% / 105,7% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BlackjackR 16 01318 wagers · RTP 56,77%

CrashR 15 48631 wagers · RTP 108,52%

European RouletteR 12 53014 wagers · RTP 187,97%

BaccaratR 8 82310 wagers · RTP 120,02%

Craps / DiceR 8 35610 wagers · RTP 69,46%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 7 50030 wagers · RTP 56,67%

Virtual Sports BettingR 7 00014 wagers · RTP 62,58%

American RouletteR 5 4066 wagers · RTP 47,78%

Three-Reel SlotR 3 00012 wagers · RTP 137,50%

Lottery / JackpotR 6006 wagers · RTP 66,67%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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