Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #999 of 1,000

P0424

Large bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 0,2% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTTail resultNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 5

Total allocated

R 20 0002 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 19 995

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 220Deviation -R 18 775

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 19 995. Bankroll allocations used: 2.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 9 965

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 19 774 to R 33 165
Finished ahead: 246 / 1,000 (24,6%)
At least one ruin: 501 / 1,000 (50,1%)
Median rank: #960 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 16,55% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.698
Mean bets / session: 4.885
Loss multiplier: 1.118×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 57,0% / 135,0% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BaccaratR 11 19849 wagers · RTP 66,03%

American RouletteR 5 65516 wagers · RTP 0,35%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 4 25344 wagers · RTP 13,21%

CrashR 3 44328 wagers · RTP 37,54%

European RouletteR 3 36610 wagers · RTP 52,41%

Virtual Sports BettingR 2 28211 wagers · RTP 0,71%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 73018 wagers · RTP 41,42%

BlackjackR 1 46911 wagers · RTP 126,79%

Craps / DiceR 1 05824 wagers · RTP 102,27%

Lottery / JackpotR 91515 wagers · RTP 72,57%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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