Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #21 of 1,000

P0425

Large bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 92,8% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 31 519

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 21 519

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 2 375Deviation R 23 895

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 21 519. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 9 845

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 14 055 to R 28 001
Finished ahead: 240 / 1,000 (24,0%)
At least one ruin: 265 / 1,000 (26,5%)
Median rank: #940 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 17,57% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.529
Mean bets / session: 4.335
Loss multiplier: 1.0138×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 66,3% / 110,8% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

CrashR 16 69834 wagers · RTP 84,72%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 8 18333 wagers · RTP 325,30%

Three-Reel SlotR 6 93828 wagers · RTP 93,33%

American RouletteR 6 13312 wagers · RTP 221,34%

European RouletteR 5 97512 wagers · RTP 7,78%

Virtual Sports BettingR 5 63512 wagers · RTP 104,26%

Craps / DiceR 5 28411 wagers · RTP 114,19%

BaccaratR 5 1599 wagers · RTP 162,57%

BlackjackR 3 9969 wagers · RTP 106,21%

Lottery / JackpotR 1 10011 wagers · RTP 72,73%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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