Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #2 of 1,000

P0426

Large bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 98,2% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTTail resultNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 62 096

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 52 096

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 2 753Deviation R 54 849

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 52 096. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 9 711

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 10 000 to R 29 633
Finished ahead: 234 / 1,000 (23,4%)
At least one ruin: 62 / 1,000 (6,2%)
Median rank: #928 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 14,62% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.321
Mean bets / session: 3.252
Loss multiplier: 1.0415×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 76,6% / 107,2% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

CrashR 11 00022 wagers · RTP 147,73%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 8 50034 wagers · RTP 420,59%

American RouletteR 5 1309 wagers · RTP 66,67%

BaccaratR 4 5608 wagers · RTP 112,50%

BlackjackR 3 4206 wagers · RTP 133,33%

Craps / DiceR 3 4206 wagers · RTP 166,67%

Three-Reel SlotR 2 0008 wagers · RTP 75,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 2 0004 wagers · RTP 65,29%

European RouletteR 1 7103 wagers · RTP 1 200,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 3003 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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