Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #945 of 1,000

P0427

Large bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 56,1% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 141

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 9 859

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 2 461Deviation -R 7 398

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 9 859. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 9 969

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 19 318 to R 33 354
Finished ahead: 244 / 1,000 (24,4%)
At least one ruin: 458 / 1,000 (45,8%)
Median rank: #960 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 15,84% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.487
Mean bets / session: 5.935
Loss multiplier: 1.0189×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 78,4% / 115,6% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Craps / DiceR 24 57445 wagers · RTP 82,28%

CrashR 16 38847 wagers · RTP 109,90%

Virtual Sports BettingR 10 00621 wagers · RTP 111,49%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 8 94749 wagers · RTP 38,96%

European RouletteR 6 38112 wagers · RTP 69,44%

American RouletteR 2 2289 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BlackjackR 1 8115 wagers · RTP 142,63%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 7518 wagers · RTP 99,94%

Lottery / JackpotR 1 23816 wagers · RTP 73,51%

BaccaratR 1 1134 wagers · RTP 182,56%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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