Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #900 of 1,000

P0428

Large bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 60,7% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 1 129

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 8 871

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 3 344Deviation -R 5 526

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 8 871. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 9 942

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 17 601 to R 32 935
Finished ahead: 236 / 1,000 (23,6%)
At least one ruin: 359 / 1,000 (35,9%)
Median rank: #954 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 17,14% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.658
Mean bets / session: 4.008
Loss multiplier: 1.0583×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 83,4% / 130,0% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

CrashR 19 35742 wagers · RTP 93,17%

Virtual Sports BettingR 17 09437 wagers · RTP 88,31%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 9 00036 wagers · RTP 22,22%

American RouletteR 7 52811 wagers · RTP 175,64%

BlackjackR 5 0346 wagers · RTP 75,00%

European RouletteR 3 8646 wagers · RTP 72,28%

Craps / DiceR 3 6687 wagers · RTP 96,89%

BaccaratR 3 2476 wagers · RTP 104,62%

Three-Reel SlotR 2 2509 wagers · RTP 88,89%

Lottery / JackpotR 2 10021 wagers · RTP 19,05%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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