Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #930 of 1,000

P0429

Large bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 56,6% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 10 515

Total allocated

R 20 0002 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 9 485

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 994Deviation -R 7 491

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 9 485. Bankroll allocations used: 2.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 9 936

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 19 607 to R 34 842
Finished ahead: 260 / 1,000 (26,0%)
At least one ruin: 476 / 1,000 (47,6%)
Median rank: #952 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 15,14% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.521
Mean bets / session: 5.866
Loss multiplier: 1.1039×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 68,3% / 134,3% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

CrashR 18 80170 wagers · RTP 110,94%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 8 02545 wagers · RTP 18,89%

BlackjackR 5 67417 wagers · RTP 78,14%

American RouletteR 5 23115 wagers · RTP 56,05%

Virtual Sports BettingR 4 43413 wagers · RTP 96,17%

Craps / DiceR 4 16811 wagers · RTP 110,60%

BaccaratR 4 14316 wagers · RTP 119,08%

Three-Reel SlotR 2 06511 wagers · RTP 43,15%

European RouletteR 1 30512 wagers · RTP 73,87%

Lottery / JackpotR 1 04114 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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