Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #982 of 1,000

P0430

Large bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 43,5% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 3

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 9 997

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 4 144Deviation -R 5 853

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 9 997. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 9 985

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 19 943 to R 31 770
Finished ahead: 257 / 1,000 (25,7%)
At least one ruin: 576 / 1,000 (57,6%)
Median rank: #970 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 18,04% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.46
Mean bets / session: 5.355
Loss multiplier: 1.0518×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 66,6% / 109,4% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

CrashR 16 09338 wagers · RTP 139,95%

BlackjackR 8 70520 wagers · RTP 101,19%

Virtual Sports BettingR 8 45422 wagers · RTP 77,57%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 7 06238 wagers · RTP 6,97%

American RouletteR 6 42713 wagers · RTP 69,83%

European RouletteR 5 08513 wagers · RTP 22,06%

Craps / DiceR 4 02311 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 3 15736 wagers · RTP 25,34%

BaccaratR 2 3157 wagers · RTP 244,15%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 0897 wagers · RTP 180,90%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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