Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #13 of 1,000

P0431

Large bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 94,7% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 39 456

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 29 456

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 2 352Deviation R 31 808

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 29 456. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 9 622

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 990 to R 30 247
Finished ahead: 238 / 1,000 (23,8%)
At least one ruin: 21 / 1,000 (2,1%)
Median rank: #924 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 9,89% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.307
Mean bets / session: 4.844
Loss multiplier: 1.0849×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 57,7% / 79,5% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

European RouletteR 20 46033 wagers · RTP 81,82%

CrashR 12 00024 wagers · RTP 78,13%

Craps / DiceR 8 06013 wagers · RTP 76,92%

BlackjackR 8 06013 wagers · RTP 92,31%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 7 75031 wagers · RTP 500,00%

BaccaratR 7 44012 wagers · RTP 138,33%

Virtual Sports BettingR 5 50011 wagers · RTP 118,07%

American RouletteR 4 3407 wagers · RTP 214,29%

Three-Reel SlotR 2 50010 wagers · RTP 55,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 4004 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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