Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #9 of 1,000

P0432

Large bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 95,7% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTTail resultNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 44 261

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 34 261

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 2 002Deviation R 36 263

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 34 261. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 9 589

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 11 000 to R 31 351
Finished ahead: 269 / 1,000 (26,9%)
At least one ruin: 117 / 1,000 (11,7%)
Median rank: #921 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 15,57% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.759
Mean bets / session: 3.103
Loss multiplier: 1.0512×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 68,7% / 117,2% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

CrashR 12 00024 wagers · RTP 144,79%

American RouletteR 9 84219 wagers · RTP 100,00%

European RouletteR 9 32418 wagers · RTP 94,44%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 6 75027 wagers · RTP 529,63%

BaccaratR 6 21612 wagers · RTP 158,33%

BlackjackR 4 1448 wagers · RTP 25,00%

Craps / DiceR 3 1086 wagers · RTP 100,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 2 75011 wagers · RTP 40,91%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 5003 wagers · RTP 260,71%

Lottery / JackpotR 9009 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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