Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #978 of 1,000

P0433

Large bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 38,1% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 6

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 9 994

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 999Deviation -R 7 995

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 9 994. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 9 948

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 17 143 to R 28 221
Finished ahead: 233 / 1,000 (23,3%)
At least one ruin: 391 / 1,000 (39,1%)
Median rank: #955 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 19,64% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.183
Mean bets / session: 5.171
Loss multiplier: 1.0473×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 73,3% / 133,0% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BlackjackR 7 43129 wagers · RTP 92,50%

CrashR 5 70123 wagers · RTP 79,32%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 5 58247 wagers · RTP 52,06%

American RouletteR 2 8809 wagers · RTP 49,62%

BaccaratR 2 64616 wagers · RTP 2,72%

Three-Reel SlotR 2 01711 wagers · RTP 69,16%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 5105 wagers · RTP 153,69%

Lottery / JackpotR 81512 wagers · RTP 25,77%

Craps / DiceR 6765 wagers · RTP 2,96%

European RouletteR 4844 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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