Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #6 of 1,000

P0434

Large bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 98,8% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTTail resultNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 49 968

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 39 968

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 150Deviation R 41 118

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 39 968. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 6 270

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 921 to R 29 649
Finished ahead: 240 / 1,000 (24,0%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #804 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 11,48% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.323
Mean bets / session: 3.811
Loss multiplier: 1.0254×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 73,9% / 101,0% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

CrashR 7 41026 wagers · RTP 85,58%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 6 50026 wagers · RTP 611,54%

BaccaratR 6 27022 wagers · RTP 113,64%

Craps / DiceR 2 5659 wagers · RTP 88,89%

Three-Reel SlotR 2 50010 wagers · RTP 90,00%

American RouletteR 1 9957 wagers · RTP 257,14%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 4255 wagers · RTP 59,07%

European RouletteR 1 1404 wagers · RTP 525,00%

BlackjackR 5702 wagers · RTP 200,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 5005 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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