Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #752 of 1,000

P0435

Large bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 68,6% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 4 634

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 5 366

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 3 309Deviation -R 2 057

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 5 366. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 9 988

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 19 910 to R 40 425
Finished ahead: 250 / 1,000 (25,0%)
At least one ruin: 556 / 1,000 (55,6%)
Median rank: #971 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 18,16% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.537
Mean bets / session: 5.442
Loss multiplier: 1.0218×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 59,2% / 94,3% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

CrashR 22 71249 wagers · RTP 123,30%

European RouletteR 16 42118 wagers · RTP 127,33%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 14 77563 wagers · RTP 62,15%

Craps / DiceR 11 59313 wagers · RTP 82,72%

BaccaratR 10 31413 wagers · RTP 73,11%

Three-Reel SlotR 9 82340 wagers · RTP 63,61%

American RouletteR 7 4948 wagers · RTP 95,25%

Virtual Sports BettingR 6 42513 wagers · RTP 94,60%

BlackjackR 1 9182 wagers · RTP 100,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 5005 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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