Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #809 of 1,000

P0436

Large bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 74,9% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 3 504

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 6 496

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 3 055Deviation -R 3 441

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 6 496. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 9 973

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 18 272 to R 32 005
Finished ahead: 205 / 1,000 (20,5%)
At least one ruin: 402 / 1,000 (40,2%)
Median rank: #962 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 11,44% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.555
Mean bets / session: 5.917
Loss multiplier: 1.0776×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 70,9% / 105,2% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

CrashR 18 59241 wagers · RTP 95,40%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 15 43162 wagers · RTP 46,85%

Craps / DiceR 15 07826 wagers · RTP 104,52%

BaccaratR 10 81718 wagers · RTP 115,61%

American RouletteR 10 24017 wagers · RTP 116,94%

BlackjackR 8 05813 wagers · RTP 127,12%

European RouletteR 6 14311 wagers · RTP 99,04%

Virtual Sports BettingR 2 9987 wagers · RTP 62,64%

Three-Reel SlotR 2 2509 wagers · RTP 44,44%

Lottery / JackpotR 1 90019 wagers · RTP 31,58%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

← Return to all 1,000 policies