Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #976 of 1,000

P0437

Large bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 27,4% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 7

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 9 993

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 2 295Deviation -R 7 698

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 9 993. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 9 904

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 13 714 to R 26 032
Finished ahead: 235 / 1,000 (23,5%)
At least one ruin: 254 / 1,000 (25,4%)
Median rank: #947 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 19,71% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.101
Mean bets / session: 4.262
Loss multiplier: 1.0509×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 61,0% / 89,5% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

CrashR 7 11425 wagers · RTP 104,00%

Craps / DiceR 6 56316 wagers · RTP 14,40%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 4 82323 wagers · RTP 15,30%

BlackjackR 3 9028 wagers · RTP 64,38%

American RouletteR 2 8739 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 9995 wagers · RTP 11,15%

BaccaratR 1 8056 wagers · RTP 1,44%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 7629 wagers · RTP 560,78%

European RouletteR 1 7563 wagers · RTP 67,65%

Lottery / JackpotR 3084 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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