Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #969 of 1,000

P0438

Large bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 35,2% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 12

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 9 988

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 2 141Deviation -R 7 848

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 9 988. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 9 940

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 15 005 to R 26 851
Finished ahead: 201 / 1,000 (20,1%)
At least one ruin: 274 / 1,000 (27,4%)
Median rank: #952 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 12,58% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.589
Mean bets / session: 4.85
Loss multiplier: 1.0935×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 81,7% / 99,8% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Virtual Sports BettingR 12 07041 wagers · RTP 163,47%

CrashR 11 10244 wagers · RTP 52,29%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 6 43135 wagers · RTP 31,13%

BaccaratR 4 02912 wagers · RTP 100,62%

European RouletteR 3 6187 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Craps / DiceR 3 42013 wagers · RTP 91,52%

American RouletteR 3 2299 wagers · RTP 41,13%

Three-Reel SlotR 2 89817 wagers · RTP 34,90%

BlackjackR 2 0484 wagers · RTP 104,10%

Lottery / JackpotR 5379 wagers · RTP 37,24%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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