Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #914 of 1,000

P0439

Large bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 39,9% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 791

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 9 210

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 332Deviation -R 7 878

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 9 210. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 7 323

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 982 to R 24 794
Finished ahead: 276 / 1,000 (27,6%)
At least one ruin: 2 / 1,000 (0,2%)
Median rank: #842 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 15,72% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.152
Mean bets / session: 3.148
Loss multiplier: 1.1072×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 76,7% / 120,1% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

CrashR 9 74624 wagers · RTP 124,91%

European RouletteR 5 0149 wagers · RTP 0,00%

American RouletteR 4 82810 wagers · RTP 15,04%

BaccaratR 4 2107 wagers · RTP 99,58%

BlackjackR 4 0528 wagers · RTP 120,83%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 3 46215 wagers · RTP 21,66%

Virtual Sports BettingR 2 5005 wagers · RTP 90,74%

Craps / DiceR 1 9524 wagers · RTP 125,41%

Lottery / JackpotR 8008 wagers · RTP 50,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 7503 wagers · RTP 33,33%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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