Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #991 of 1,000

P0440

Large bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 19,3% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 5 623

Total allocated

R 20 0002 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 14 377

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 2 806Deviation -R 11 570

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 14 377. Bankroll allocations used: 2.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 9 968

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 19 680 to R 28 446
Finished ahead: 244 / 1,000 (24,4%)
At least one ruin: 486 / 1,000 (48,6%)
Median rank: #961 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 16,44% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.708
Mean bets / session: 4.698
Loss multiplier: 1.0306×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 55,3% / 96,6% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

CrashR 17 91952 wagers · RTP 141,15%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 8 56447 wagers · RTP 3,34%

Craps / DiceR 7 48318 wagers · RTP 69,57%

European RouletteR 6 99013 wagers · RTP 39,64%

Virtual Sports BettingR 3 91210 wagers · RTP 35,79%

Lottery / JackpotR 3 60041 wagers · RTP 38,89%

BaccaratR 3 5849 wagers · RTP 19,31%

BlackjackR 3 1977 wagers · RTP 159,21%

Three-Reel SlotR 2 51613 wagers · RTP 105,17%

American RouletteR 1 3957 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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