Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #929 of 1,000

P0441

Large bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 56,0% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 556

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 9 444

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 2 536Deviation -R 6 908

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 9 444. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 9 899

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 18 431 to R 35 998
Finished ahead: 274 / 1,000 (27,4%)
At least one ruin: 366 / 1,000 (36,6%)
Median rank: #946 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 19,33% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.628
Mean bets / session: 3.616
Loss multiplier: 1.0048×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 57,4% / 114,3% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

European RouletteR 15 82222 wagers · RTP 95,44%

CrashR 11 51224 wagers · RTP 88,13%

BaccaratR 10 37215 wagers · RTP 99,45%

Craps / DiceR 8 66912 wagers · RTP 79,66%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 8 65936 wagers · RTP 5,77%

American RouletteR 6 6888 wagers · RTP 175,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 5 50011 wagers · RTP 75,93%

BlackjackR 5 4247 wagers · RTP 114,86%

Lottery / JackpotR 1 60016 wagers · RTP 37,50%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 2505 wagers · RTP 30,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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