Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #26 of 1,000

P0442

Large bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 90,5% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 39 567

Total allocated

R 20 0002 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 19 567

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 825Deviation R 21 392

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 19 567. Bankroll allocations used: 2.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 9 837

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 15 870 to R 26 808
Finished ahead: 251 / 1,000 (25,1%)
At least one ruin: 313 / 1,000 (31,3%)
Median rank: #938 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 14,72% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.673
Mean bets / session: 4.685
Loss multiplier: 1.0824×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 67,9% / 103,1% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

American RouletteR 10 40642 wagers · RTP 80,41%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 8 81948 wagers · RTP 391,21%

CrashR 8 02531 wagers · RTP 72,89%

BaccaratR 4 95616 wagers · RTP 75,61%

Virtual Sports BettingR 4 46115 wagers · RTP 83,60%

Craps / DiceR 3 34315 wagers · RTP 129,70%

European RouletteR 2 89213 wagers · RTP 105,01%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 57612 wagers · RTP 40,70%

BlackjackR 1 1415 wagers · RTP 132,87%

Lottery / JackpotR 7389 wagers · RTP 27,10%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

← Return to all 1,000 policies