Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #944 of 1,000

P0443

Large bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 24,9% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 141

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 9 859

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 036Deviation -R 8 823

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 9 859. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 7 866

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 985 to R 29 363
Finished ahead: 211 / 1,000 (21,1%)
At least one ruin: 8 / 1,000 (0,8%)
Median rank: #868 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 12,70% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.552
Mean bets / session: 4.163
Loss multiplier: 1.0387×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 71,2% / 137,5% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

High-Volatility Video SlotR 5 43231 wagers · RTP 32,22%

CrashR 4 78335 wagers · RTP 64,55%

BlackjackR 4 54828 wagers · RTP 94,04%

Virtual Sports BettingR 3 16415 wagers · RTP 62,13%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 86911 wagers · RTP 28,79%

European RouletteR 1 58611 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Craps / DiceR 1 1497 wagers · RTP 100,61%

Lottery / JackpotR 93812 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BaccaratR 8406 wagers · RTP 101,68%

American RouletteR 8223 wagers · RTP 200,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

← Return to all 1,000 policies