Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #40 of 1,000

P0444

Large bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 87,9% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 23 812

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 13 812

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 764Deviation R 15 575

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 13 812. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 8 138

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 10 679 to R 27 180
Finished ahead: 252 / 1,000 (25,2%)
At least one ruin: 116 / 1,000 (11,6%)
Median rank: #872 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 18,60% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.717
Mean bets / session: 3.56
Loss multiplier: 1.0519×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 57,4% / 92,6% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

CrashR 12 06030 wagers · RTP 80,00%

BaccaratR 10 45226 wagers · RTP 105,19%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 9 00036 wagers · RTP 30,56%

BlackjackR 6 03015 wagers · RTP 113,33%

Virtual Sports BettingR 4 02010 wagers · RTP 178,03%

European RouletteR 3 6189 wagers · RTP 733,33%

Three-Reel SlotR 3 25013 wagers · RTP 100,00%

Craps / DiceR 3 2168 wagers · RTP 50,00%

American RouletteR 3 2168 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 5005 wagers · RTP 80,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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