Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #997 of 1,000

P0446

Large bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 11,5% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 2 193

Total allocated

R 20 0002 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 17 807

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 447Deviation -R 16 360

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 17 807. Bankroll allocations used: 2.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 9 976

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 19 594 to R 34 015
Finished ahead: 251 / 1,000 (25,1%)
At least one ruin: 465 / 1,000 (46,5%)
Median rank: #964 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 13,78% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.731
Mean bets / session: 5.637
Loss multiplier: 1.0145×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 70,0% / 128,5% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

CrashR 11 10749 wagers · RTP 31,35%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 7 10168 wagers · RTP 44,99%

American RouletteR 4 79219 wagers · RTP 41,07%

BaccaratR 3 85916 wagers · RTP 118,60%

BlackjackR 2 86620 wagers · RTP 77,11%

Three-Reel SlotR 2 73126 wagers · RTP 78,23%

Craps / DiceR 2 62922 wagers · RTP 83,00%

European RouletteR 2 13111 wagers · RTP 48,24%

Lottery / JackpotR 1 01817 wagers · RTP 20,63%

Virtual Sports BettingR 98712 wagers · RTP 43,12%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

← Return to all 1,000 policies