Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #659 of 1,000

P0447

Large bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 70,1% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 6 194

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 3 806

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 2 310Deviation -R 1 496

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 3 806. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 9 772

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 12 328 to R 30 729
Finished ahead: 252 / 1,000 (25,2%)
At least one ruin: 177 / 1,000 (17,7%)
Median rank: #932 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 15,46% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.317
Mean bets / session: 5.191
Loss multiplier: 1.0442×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 84,8% / 105,7% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

CrashR 16 00032 wagers · RTP 60,16%

Craps / DiceR 14 07525 wagers · RTP 80,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 8 00032 wagers · RTP 71,88%

Virtual Sports BettingR 6 00012 wagers · RTP 116,57%

BlackjackR 5 0679 wagers · RTP 100,00%

BaccaratR 5 0679 wagers · RTP 141,11%

European RouletteR 5 0319 wagers · RTP 94,28%

American RouletteR 3 9417 wagers · RTP 314,29%

Three-Reel SlotR 3 25013 wagers · RTP 23,08%

Lottery / JackpotR 1 50015 wagers · RTP 26,67%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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