Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #10 of 1,000

P0448

Large bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 95,4% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTTail resultNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 42 853

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 32 853

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 3 306Deviation R 36 158

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 32 853. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 9 897

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 16 910 to R 30 951
Finished ahead: 262 / 1,000 (26,2%)
At least one ruin: 396 / 1,000 (39,6%)
Median rank: #944 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 19,88% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.484
Mean bets / session: 5.178
Loss multiplier: 1.0338×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 57,4% / 111,1% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

CrashR 19 00038 wagers · RTP 116,45%

Virtual Sports BettingR 13 50027 wagers · RTP 74,30%

BaccaratR 11 08821 wagers · RTP 100,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 8 50034 wagers · RTP 414,71%

American RouletteR 8 44816 wagers · RTP 143,75%

European RouletteR 4 7529 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BlackjackR 4 7529 wagers · RTP 77,78%

Craps / DiceR 4 2248 wagers · RTP 137,50%

Three-Reel SlotR 4 00016 wagers · RTP 271,88%

Lottery / JackpotR 1 30013 wagers · RTP 107,69%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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