Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #961 of 1,000

P0449

Large bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 15,2% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 30

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 9 970

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 728Deviation -R 9 242

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 9 970. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 9 077

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 990 to R 29 394
Finished ahead: 250 / 1,000 (25,0%)
At least one ruin: 9 / 1,000 (0,9%)
Median rank: #898 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 13,47% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.284
Mean bets / session: 4.026
Loss multiplier: 1.0216×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 58,4% / 87,6% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

CrashR 5 39941 wagers · RTP 83,24%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2 98820 wagers · RTP 62,48%

Craps / DiceR 2 79112 wagers · RTP 52,02%

European RouletteR 2 7428 wagers · RTP 1,24%

BlackjackR 2 70110 wagers · RTP 56,53%

American RouletteR 2 2405 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 0884 wagers · RTP 70,88%

BaccaratR 7657 wagers · RTP 171,50%

Three-Reel SlotR 4632 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 2767 wagers · RTP 9,42%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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