Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #112 of 1,000

P0450

Large bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 78,0% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 12 228

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 2 228

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 2 799Deviation R 5 026

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 2 228. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 9 941

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 17 782 to R 27 683
Finished ahead: 252 / 1,000 (25,2%)
At least one ruin: 401 / 1,000 (40,1%)
Median rank: #951 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 15,57% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.488
Mean bets / session: 5.158
Loss multiplier: 1.0298×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 81,5% / 77,4% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

CrashR 13 50027 wagers · RTP 157,41%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 8 50034 wagers · RTP 50,00%

American RouletteR 7 52713 wagers · RTP 53,85%

BaccaratR 7 52713 wagers · RTP 84,62%

Craps / DiceR 6 94812 wagers · RTP 158,33%

BlackjackR 5 79010 wagers · RTP 130,00%

European RouletteR 4 0537 wagers · RTP 114,29%

Virtual Sports BettingR 3 5007 wagers · RTP 97,59%

Lottery / JackpotR 2 50025 wagers · RTP 8,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 2 2509 wagers · RTP 72,22%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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