Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #903 of 1,000

P0451

Large bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 56,3% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 1 069

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 8 931

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 2 235Deviation -R 6 695

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 8 931. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 9 674

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 12 475 to R 32 893
Finished ahead: 272 / 1,000 (27,2%)
At least one ruin: 167 / 1,000 (16,7%)
Median rank: #927 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 16,06% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.414
Mean bets / session: 3.995
Loss multiplier: 1.0809×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 64,1% / 135,6% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

European RouletteR 14 12733 wagers · RTP 79,26%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 10 08542 wagers · RTP 49,63%

CrashR 9 46624 wagers · RTP 112,30%

American RouletteR 6 13613 wagers · RTP 91,25%

BlackjackR 4 87111 wagers · RTP 85,05%

BaccaratR 3 3868 wagers · RTP 75,16%

Craps / DiceR 2 2335 wagers · RTP 163,23%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 7275 wagers · RTP 86,94%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 6807 wagers · RTP 102,08%

Lottery / JackpotR 1 40014 wagers · RTP 14,29%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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