Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #995 of 1,000

P0452

Large bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 12,5% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 14 307

Total allocated

R 30 0003 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 15 693

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 730Deviation -R 13 963

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 15 693. Bankroll allocations used: 3.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 9 958

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 19 034 to R 27 551
Finished ahead: 253 / 1,000 (25,3%)
At least one ruin: 452 / 1,000 (45,2%)
Median rank: #955 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 17,81% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.705
Mean bets / session: 3.755
Loss multiplier: 1.1031×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 82,3% / 117,9% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

CrashR 10 20438 wagers · RTP 132,78%

American RouletteR 5 94631 wagers · RTP 26,98%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 4 02331 wagers · RTP 5,97%

BaccaratR 3 96312 wagers · RTP 53,95%

European RouletteR 2 6919 wagers · RTP 39,69%

Three-Reel SlotR 2 54715 wagers · RTP 49,41%

Virtual Sports BettingR 2 3049 wagers · RTP 1,45%

Craps / DiceR 2 3047 wagers · RTP 2,17%

BlackjackR 1 7566 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 2958 wagers · RTP 135,59%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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