Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #989 of 1,000

P0453

Large bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 12,3% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 7 870

Total allocated

R 20 0002 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 12 130

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 735Deviation -R 10 395

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 12 130. Bankroll allocations used: 2.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 9 817

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 14 918 to R 29 717
Finished ahead: 269 / 1,000 (26,9%)
At least one ruin: 316 / 1,000 (31,6%)
Median rank: #940 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 16,10% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.7
Mean bets / session: 4.256
Loss multiplier: 1.0939×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 57,9% / 138,2% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

CrashR 13 03952 wagers · RTP 87,20%

BlackjackR 8 98834 wagers · RTP 131,10%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 5 82440 wagers · RTP 48,04%

BaccaratR 5 52322 wagers · RTP 49,00%

European RouletteR 3 5159 wagers · RTP 34,99%

Virtual Sports BettingR 3 27711 wagers · RTP 46,83%

American RouletteR 2 0447 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Craps / DiceR 2 0427 wagers · RTP 97,65%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 62114 wagers · RTP 34,73%

Lottery / JackpotR 2356 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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