Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #915 of 1,000

P0454

Large bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 38,6% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 738

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 9 262

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 284Deviation -R 7 978

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 9 262. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 6 642

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 992 to R 29 085
Finished ahead: 289 / 1,000 (28,9%)
At least one ruin: 21 / 1,000 (2,1%)
Median rank: #819 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 19,95% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.101
Mean bets / session: 3.418
Loss multiplier: 1.0272×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 72,9% / 110,9% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BaccaratR 13 30721 wagers · RTP 139,74%

CrashR 5 61513 wagers · RTP 91,36%

Virtual Sports BettingR 4 0659 wagers · RTP 66,64%

Craps / DiceR 4 0146 wagers · RTP 34,68%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 3 94016 wagers · RTP 44,42%

European RouletteR 3 7976 wagers · RTP 36,66%

American RouletteR 3 3405 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 2 75011 wagers · RTP 100,00%

BlackjackR 1 9523 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 4004 wagers · RTP 50,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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