Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #934 of 1,000

P0455

Large bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 38,2% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 373

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 9 627

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 652Deviation -R 7 974

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 9 627. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 9 048

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 978 to R 31 995
Finished ahead: 274 / 1,000 (27,4%)
At least one ruin: 2 / 1,000 (0,2%)
Median rank: #898 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 11,85% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.32
Mean bets / session: 3.385
Loss multiplier: 1.0334×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 77,0% / 70,7% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

American RouletteR 7 04611 wagers · RTP 80,33%

CrashR 6 40319 wagers · RTP 72,62%

Craps / DiceR 4 8018 wagers · RTP 86,32%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 4 20219 wagers · RTP 5,95%

BlackjackR 3 86310 wagers · RTP 167,02%

Three-Reel SlotR 2 77717 wagers · RTP 26,18%

BaccaratR 2 5255 wagers · RTP 109,31%

European RouletteR 1 7726 wagers · RTP 62,87%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 6444 wagers · RTP 23,14%

Lottery / JackpotR 93110 wagers · RTP 21,48%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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