Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #46 of 1,000

P0456

Large bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 79,6% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 31 959

Total allocated

R 20 0002 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 11 959

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 3 312Deviation R 15 270

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 11 959. Bankroll allocations used: 2.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 10 000

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 20 000 to R 46 864
Finished ahead: 298 / 1,000 (29,8%)
At least one ruin: 675 / 1,000 (67,5%)
Median rank: #983 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 17,81% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.68
Mean bets / session: 5.459
Loss multiplier: 1.0999×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 77,3% / 99,5% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

CrashR 17 07548 wagers · RTP 80,45%

BlackjackR 11 63518 wagers · RTP 114,43%

Craps / DiceR 10 35413 wagers · RTP 93,24%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 9 28460 wagers · RTP 382,65%

American RouletteR 9 11813 wagers · RTP 0,00%

European RouletteR 6 23914 wagers · RTP 52,48%

BaccaratR 5 8689 wagers · RTP 139,47%

Virtual Sports BettingR 4 35710 wagers · RTP 93,39%

Three-Reel SlotR 2 41514 wagers · RTP 62,26%

Lottery / JackpotR 1 16414 wagers · RTP 17,87%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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